Sacramento St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	309.0
Current RPI:	309
Expected SOS:	138
Current SOS:	138
Current Record:	5-25
Expected Record:	5-25
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-8
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	310
Expected OOC SOS:	113

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-25	309.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacramento St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	72-61	L	0%
11-17	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	69-56	L	0%
11-21	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	N	64-47	L	0%
11-23	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	N	52-89	L	0%
11-24	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	68-63	L	0%
11-26	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	69-74	L	0%
12-4	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	70-54	L	0%
12-9	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	77-54	L	0%
12-19	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	66-61	W	100%
12-21	Portland (285.0)	WCC	N	75-80	L	0%
12-23	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	72-82	L	0%
12-30	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	80-75	W	100%
1-4	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	69-68	L	0%
1-6	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	82-67	L	0%
1-11	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	66-78	L	0%
1-13	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	87-68	W	100%
1-18	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	80-64	L	0%
1-20	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	71-65	L	0%
1-27	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	61-71	W	100%
2-1	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	54-74	L	0%
2-3	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	58-81	L	0%
2-8	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	92-76	L	0%
2-10	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	71-69	L	0%
2-15	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	64-67	L	0%
2-17	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	73-83	L	0%
2-22	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	58-53	L	0%
2-24	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	77-74	L	0%
3-1	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	73-90	L	0%
3-3	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	88-77	W	100%
3-6	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	N	71-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacramento St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sacramento St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sacramento St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sacramento St.	BSky	26.34	26.34	14.39	14.39	-18.76	-18.76
Portland St.	BSky	5.87	5.87	59.26	59.26	1.09	1.09
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.28	4.28	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Montana	BSky	4.22	4.22	75.86	75.86	2.19	2.19
Idaho St.	BSky	4.15	4.15	38.46	38.46	-0.96	-0.96
Montana St.	BSky	4.11	4.11	35.71	35.71	-1.17	-1.17
Weber St.	BSky	4.09	4.09	57.69	57.69	0.63	0.63
Idaho	BSky	4.08	4.08	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.73	2.73	63.33	63.33	0.73	0.73
Southern Utah	BSky	2.73	2.73	34.48	34.48	-0.85	-0.85
North Dakota	BSky	2.64	2.64	31.03	31.03	-1.00	-1.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.56	2.56	10.34	10.34	-2.03	-2.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.06	2.06	14.81	14.81	-1.45	-1.45
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.97	1.97	68.97	68.97	0.75	0.75
UC Davis	BW	1.95	1.95	65.52	65.52	0.60	0.60
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.92	1.92	60.71	60.71	0.41	0.41
Portland	WCC	1.91	1.91	21.43	21.43	-1.09	-1.09
San Francisco	WCC	1.88	1.88	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	1.83	1.83	72.41	72.41	0.82	0.82
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.80	1.80	84.38	84.38	1.24	1.24
Colorado St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
San Diego St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.67	1.67	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.45	0.45	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.39	0.39	24.14	24.14	-0.20	-0.20
Utah St.	MWC	0.36	0.36	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.36	0.36	33.33	33.33	-0.12	-0.12
Long Beach St.	BW	0.34	0.34	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.33	0.33	34.48	34.48	-0.10	-0.10
Pepperdine	WCC	0.33	0.33	16.13	16.13	-0.22	-0.22
Cal Poly	BW	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
Fresno St.	MWC	0.31	0.31	63.33	63.33	0.08	0.08
BYU	WCC	0.30	0.30	70.59	70.59	0.13	0.13
Nevada	MWC	0.30	0.30	79.41	79.41	0.18	0.18
San Jose St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	10.34	10.34	-0.22	-0.22
Hawaii	BW	0.26	0.26	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.24	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.24	0.24	88.24	88.24	0.18	0.18
Utah Valley	WAC	0.23	0.23	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.19	0.19	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01